Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 13/2005Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 12/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 666 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Jul, 16 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day two (15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 092
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 092/092/092
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  007/008-015/018-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/20
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/50/30