Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 700 km/s at 13/0104Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 13/0545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 593 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jul 110 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 025/041 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 014/018-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/10 Minor Storm 20/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/20 Major-severe storm 50/30/20
