Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/2233Z from Region 1787 (S13W49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (14 Jul) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (15
Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
565 km/s at 12/2242Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 13/1339Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/2254Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16728 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (16
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 114
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 110/105/110
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 018/025-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/10
Minor Storm 30/15/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 65/50/10