Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 371 km/s at 13/0111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 444 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 069
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  005/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/20/20