Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 13/1703Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/1441Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1441Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7916 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 075
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20