Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 616 km/s at 13/0908Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3055 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 104
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 007/008-007/006-007/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20