Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 13/0424Z from Region 2257 (N07W81). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (14 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 479 km/s at 13/1312Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 45/40/35
Class X 10/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 145
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 006/005-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/30
COMMENT: 10 cm Flux is estimated due to lack of Penticton report.