Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
January 13, 2014
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 13/0424Z from Region 2257 (N07W81). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (14 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 479 km/s at 13/1312Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Jan).

 

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

Class M    45/40/35

Class X    10/05/05

Proton     05/05/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           13 Jan 145

Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 145/140/140

90 Day Mean        13 Jan 160

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  007/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  006/005-011/012-009/010

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/30/20

Minor Storm           01/15/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/30/25

Major-severe storm    10/40/30

COMMENT: 10 cm Flux is estimated due to lack of Penticton report.

SpaceRef staff editor.