Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/1633Z from Region 1953 (S18W13). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (14 Jan) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
922 km/s at 13/0724Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/1006Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0225Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
12/2335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16
Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (14 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 50/10/10
Class X 15/01/01
Proton 30/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 143
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 135/135/140
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
