Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 January 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
13/0838Z from Region 1652 (N19W28). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14
Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
511 km/s at 13/2043Z. Total IMF reached 11.1 nT at 13/1944Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8.3 nT at 13/1858Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 156
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05