- Status Report
- Feb 5, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 Feburary 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 352 km/s at 12/2213Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4518 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Feb, 16 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 075
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 007/008-011/013-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/45/35