Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 Feburary 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 352 km/s at 12/2213Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4518 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Feb, 16 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 075
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 076/076/076
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  007/008-011/013-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/45/35