Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 13/0147Z from Region 2941 (N24W54). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 13/0129Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/0523Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5219 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 105
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 103/100/098
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 009/010-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/15/15