Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 13/0721Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 13/0216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 13/0216Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 198 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 071
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 009/012-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/25