Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (16 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 337 km/s at 13/1820Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/2018Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (15 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (16 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 076
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 076/075/074
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  009/012-020/028-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    01/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    45/60/55