Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 February 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
418 km/s at 13/0352Z. Total IMF reached 11.3 nT at 13/1650Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9.3 nT at 13/1831Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 100
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/10