Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 13/0429Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/2149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 320 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 081
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 082/083/083
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10