Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 452 km/s at 13/0216Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/1620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2256 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Dec, 15 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 070
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/25
