Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 12/2340Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1218Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 235 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 072
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10