Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 13/1034Z from Region 2468 (S15E26). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 578 km/s at 12/2234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8708 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 123
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 007/008-013/018-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/40
Minor Storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/45/50