Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 13/1217Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 068
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  006/005-009/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/40/50