Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 771 km/s at 12/2146Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/0537Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 978 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Aug, 16 Aug) and quiet levels on day two (15 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 068
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  009/008-006/005-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/25