Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 13, 2016
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 12/2340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12032 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (16 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 091
Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 13 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 006/005-010/012-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/35
Minor Storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/20


SpaceRef staff editor.