Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (14 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic 11 nT at 13/0938Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0646Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1415 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Apr), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (15 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M 01/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 099
Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 100/103/105
90 Day Mean 13 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 023/035-015/020-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor Storm 40/30/10
Major-severe storm 25/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 79/70/40