Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr, 16 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 13/0252Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4636 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr, 16 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 078
Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 13 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/20