Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 12/0649Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5279 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 069
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  004/005-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10