Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 September 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
September 12, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 348 km/s at 12/0035Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 12/0923Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6738 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Sep, 14 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (15 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 087
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 082/082/080
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.