Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 452 km/s at
12/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/1946Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 229 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Sep) with a slight chance
for minor storm levels, quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (15 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 093
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 013/015-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/05
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 45/20/05