Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 12/0703Z. Total IMF -16 nT at 12/0158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Oct), quiet levels on day two (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 084
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 084/082/082
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 032/051
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 013/015-005/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/20
Minor Storm 10/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 40/20/25