Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 304 km/s at 12/1523Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/1842Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 633 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 074
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 074/074/072
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10