Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 11/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 740 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 068
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 007/008-008/008-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/25