Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 12, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 11/2229Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 580 km/s at 12/2029Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/1632Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 34918 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (14 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 089
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 013/015-015/018-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/40
Minor Storm 10/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 35/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/55/60

SpaceRef staff editor.