Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
11/2307Z from Region 1861 (S09W05). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 404 km/s at
12/1456Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2030Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1455 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Oct, 14 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 128
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 130/125/125
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 006/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/15