Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 12/0105Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 12/1035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 103 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 071
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10