Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 12, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 648 km/s at 11/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 33937 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (13 Nov, 14 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 104
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 107/113/113
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 017/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 013/015-015/020-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/30
Minor Storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/55/40

SpaceRef staff editor.