Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to

12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at

12/1046Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate

with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (13 Nov) and likely

to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three

(14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.

Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak

speed of 657 km/s at 12/0348Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/2145Z. The

maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/2135Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov,

14 Nov, 15 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on

days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

Class M    60/70/70

Class X    20/30/30

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           12 Nov 153

Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 165/180/180

90 Day Mean        12 Nov 143

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  009/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  011/014

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    25/25/25