Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
12/1942Z from Region 1897 (S20E51). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14
Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at
11/2349Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/2124Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/0953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 322 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Nov, 14 Nov), with a
chance for unsettled periods, and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(15 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two,
and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 168
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 170/170/165
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 003/005-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 25/10/25