Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 Nov 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/1022Z from Region 1610 (S22W10). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
12/0605Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0724Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8.1 nT at 12/1934Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly active with a chance for minor storm levels early on day
one (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from 09/1524Z and 10/0539Z.
Activity is expected to decrease to generally unsettled levels on day 2
(14 Nov) as CME effects subside. On day 3 (15 Nov) conditions are
expected to return to mostly quiet levels.

III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 144
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 145/145/150
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 013/015-007/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/05
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 25/30/10
Major-severe storm 05/25/05