Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/2019Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 353 km/s at 12/2047Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 12/1314Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2114Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 12/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (14 May).

III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/10/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 133
Predicted 13 May-15 May 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 12 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 008/008-010/012-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/40/40