Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 12/0744Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13216 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 May, 14 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 076
Predicted   13 May-15 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        12 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  005/005-006/005-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor Storm           01/01/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/60