Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 11/2212Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 42356 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 May, 14 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 May).

III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 092
Predicted 13 May-15 May 095/097/100
90 Day Mean 12 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 005/005-004/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/10/30