Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 12/1151Z from Region 2339 (N14W19). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 455 km/s at 12/1850Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 12/0649Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/1459Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 12/0730Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15 May).
III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 163
Predicted 13 May-15 May 160/155/150
90 Day Mean 12 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 019/025-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May