Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 11/2232Z from Region 2964 (S28W68). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 12/1407Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/2134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 125
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 125/120/120
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 015/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 008/010-020/030-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/35
Minor Storm 05/35/30
Major-severe storm 01/25/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 25/15/20
Major-severe storm 30/80/65