Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 March 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 12/0639Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/0653Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2406 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (13 Mar, 15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 071
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 010/012-009/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/20/35