Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 12/0639Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/0653Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2406 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (13 Mar, 15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 071
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  010/012-009/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor Storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/20/35