Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 12/0619Z from Region 2513 (N10W57). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 11/2256Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 182 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 095
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 021/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 010/010-007/008-017/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/40
Minor Storm 05/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/60