Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 12/1408Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at 12/1823Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Mar, 14 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 127
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 128/128/130
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 021/030-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
