Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 12/1943Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/0902Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 075
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 074/073/072
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  009/010-008/008-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20