Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 11/2228Z from Region 2552 (N15W75). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 11/2124Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 12/1234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 448 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (13 Jun, 15 Jun) and quiet levels on day two (14 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 094
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 092/092/092
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 007/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/15/25