Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
12/1021Z from Region 2087 (S18E43). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14
Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 570 km/s at
12/0203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2021Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 12/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jun). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15
Jun).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 175
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 170/165/155
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 139

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 012/018-016/020-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 20/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/10
Major-severe storm 50/25/05