Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 658 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Jul), unsettled to active levels on day two (14 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 090
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  005/005-011/015-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/40/40