Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 12/1959Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0553Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/0557Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1311 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 092
Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 094/094/094
90 Day Mean 12 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 012/015-015/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/20